Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brady Mangil, and I'm a full-time working, tax paying adult from Pennsylvania. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on regulated prediction markets like Kalshi, and I strongly support the CFTC creating a well-regulated framework for these markets rather than imposing broad bans or overly restrictive rules.
I rely on prediction markets to get a clearer picture of the state of the economy, public and global events in an era where creditable media companies are far and few between, and certainly social media has infected the public opinion by providing a voice to those who have no merit. Prediction market forecasts are more accurate and trustworthy than most polls or TV pundits which are now riddled with false information from poor data for a myriad of reasons, but I believe the most prominent being the deteriorated state of media and the undeniable fact that news sources of today aren't as creditable as they once were due to their financial incentives. Prediction markets remove this bias, allowing only those who are literally willing to put their money on the line to have a day, and not just throwing around headlines and false narratives for clicks. That information isn't just helpful for trading; it helps me make sense of the world. This isn't gambling, it's a practical way to inform myself and help separate fact from fiction.
Im concerned about classifying event contracts as gaming. That label doesn't fit. Trading on these platforms takes research and judgment about real-world events, not luck. Its no different from investing in stocks or commodities, and it serves a real economic purpose through price discovery and risk management. I also believe that informed trading, even by those with strong insights, makes the market better for everyone by improving the accuracy of the prices we all rely on.
On the safety front, I much prefer trading on regulated platforms like Kalshi over unregulated offshore ones. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people like me will get pushed to less safe venues with no oversight. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. Id urge you to consider proportionate regulation instead of broad categorical bans. Address specific risks like manipulation or insider trading with targeted rules, using the tools you already have. The US should be leading the way in financial innovation, not leaving it to other countries to set the standard.
Id like to speak to a few specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated prediction markets strike that balance by giving regular people access to useful tools while keeping oversight in place. For Question 15, on defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly feel event contracts are legitimate economic tools, not games of chance. And on Question 29, regarding inside information, I believe informed trading generally helps price discovery, and existing laws already bar federal employees from abusing nonpublic information.
I ask the CFTC to support a fair, proportionate regulatory framework for prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Let hard working, tax paying American people like me continue to participate in these valuable, legal markets under clear and sensible rules.
Sincerely,
Brady Mangil
