Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Kelly, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Colorado writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not a financial expert or a lawyer, just someone who has found value in trading on regulated prediction markets like Kalshi, and I want to make sure my voice is heard before you draft formal rules.
I've been using platforms like Kalshi for a while now to place trades on events that matter to me, like election outcomes or economic indicators. What strikes me most is how these markets often predict outcomes better than polls or TV pundits. I remember last year, when everyone was guessing about a key election result, the prediction market I follow had a much clearer, more accurate picture weeks ahead of time. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders like me, it's useful for anyone trying to understand what's really going on in the world. I believe keeping these markets accessible benefits society as a whole.
I also strongly feel that my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets should be protected. I'm not a big investor or part of some financial elite. I'm just a regular person who does my homework and makes informed trades. If you ban or over-restrict prediction markets, you're not stopping the activity, you're just pushing it offshore to unregulated platforms where there's no oversight. I've seen some of those sketchy offshore sites, and theyre nowhere near as safe or transparent as a CFTC-regulated platform like Kalshi. Regulation should keep us safe, not drive us into riskier corners of the internet.
On that note, I'm worried about broad categorical bans or overly harsh rules. I understand the CFTC has concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that those are real issues. But those problems can be tackled with targeted rules, not by shutting down entire markets. Your existing powers to go after bad actors should be enough if enforced properly. In response to some of your questions, like those in Topic Area B about balancing innovation and consumer protection (Questions 7-14), I think proportionate regulation is the way to go. Focus on specific risks instead of wide prohibitions that hurt regular folks like me.
I hope you'll consider my perspective as a regular citizen who values these markets. Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid bans or restrictions that would push activity offshore or limit access for everyday people. Thank you for taking the time to read my comment.
Sincerely,
John Kelly
