Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jackson Moon, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Idaho, born in 2002, writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I want to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets. They've helped me in ways I didn't expect, even though I've had my share of ups and downs.
I've won some decent money before, turning $10 into enough for good food, which felt great. But I've also lost $600 myself, and someone close to me lost $5,000 on one of these apps. That's six months of savings for an average person like us. Losing hurts, no question. Still, I believe these markets are valuable. Kalshi, for instance, has made me happier and taught me a whole new way of thinking about predictions. It's almost like learning a new language. I use it to check odds on things like sporting events or even Bitcoin prices, and I see it adding value to markets like crypto by creating a second layer of stability. Bitcoin's worthless without a market, and Kalshi helps with that.
I strongly believe regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore ones. If you ban or over-restrict these markets, people like me will just end up on sketchy sites with no oversight. I've seen shady stuff, including what looked like straight-up insider trading on an app. Betting on something you already know is going to happen, with info others don't have, is the worst racket I've ever heard of. It's not right. But banning the whole market isn't the answer. It's already illegal to trade on inside info or manipulate prices. The CFTC should focus on enforcing those rules, not punishing everyone. I'm all for stopping manipulation, whether it's fear tactics or whale moves in Bitcoin with mass holdings. Knowledge and education are fine to use, but power plays and insider trading aren't.
I also think the US should lead in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take over this space. Prediction markets aren't just a gamble; they help me hedge personal financial risks, and I've read academic studies showing they provide transparent data and better forecasts than polls. Addressing your questions, like in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe the benefits of innovation and price discovery outweigh the risks if you regulate smartly. And for Topic E on inside information (Questions 29-32), enforce the laws we have instead of broad bans.
Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Stabilize them, stop insider trading, but don't shut them down or push us offshore. Kalshi is my number one investment app, and I want to keep using it safely.
Sincerely,
Jackson Moon
