Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Shane O'Connell, and I'm a student from Wisconsin. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and I want to share why I believe the CFTC should support well-regulated prediction markets rather than banning or overly restricting them.
For me, trading on prediction markets is a hobby that keeps me engaged and happy. It's entertaining without causing harm if you're smart about it. I use it partly to follow sports, checking odds and making bets. Unlike betting against a casino, you're competing with other people, which feels fairer. Honestly, it makes watching sports a hundred times more fun. This is one of the last affordable hobbies I have left since everything else costs too much. I really hope this doesn't get taken away in Wisconsin. Of course, choices have consequences, and people need to live with that, but I believe platforms like Kalshi are safe when used responsibly.
Beyond my personal enjoyment, I see real value in prediction markets for society. As a student, I'm fascinated by how they produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. They pull together information in a way nothing else does, which can help everyone make better decisions, from regular folks to policymakers. I've also read about academic research showing how these markets improve price discovery, and I think making that data transparent could be a huge benefit for studies and public knowledge.
I'm worried that banning or over-restricting these markets would just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe. Kalshi, being regulated, gives me confidence that there are rules in place. Plus, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead on something this promising. I also don't think event contracts should be called gaming. They have real economic purposes, like helping people understand risks and trends, and informed trading only makes the prices more accurate for everyone.
Regarding some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I think the CFTC should balance innovation with consumer protection by keeping regulated markets open. For Topic Area C on listed activities (Questions 15-22), classifying these as gaming ignores their legitimate uses. And on Topic Area E about inside information (Questions 29-32), I believe informed traders actually help the market by improving price discovery, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible for people like me who use them responsibly and value their benefits.
Sincerely,
Shane O'Connell
