Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jonathan Moreno Tejeda, and I'm a student from Nevada with a strong interest in economics and public policy. I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, I've seen firsthand the value these markets provide, and I urge the CFTC to adopt a balanced approach that fosters innovation while addressing legitimate concerns.
Prediction markets aren't just a hobby for me; they offer unique insights that I can't find anywhere else. As a student, I'm constantly trying to understand the world around me, especially when it comes to elections and major public events. I've found that the prices on these markets often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or pundits. That kind of information is invaluable, not just to traders like me, but to anyone trying to make sense of complex issues. I also believe these markets democratize access to forecasting. They're not just for big institutions; they let regular people like me participate and contribute to better predictions.
I'm particularly concerned about the risk of over-restriction or outright bans on certain types of contracts, like sports events, which I've enjoyed trading on in the past. I understand the worry about these markets being seen as gambling, but trading on them requires research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. It's not a game of chance. If anything, I wish I could trade on sports again, as it helped me engage with real-world events in a meaningful way.
I also want to address a bigger issue, tied to some of the questions in your ANPR, like those in Topic Area D (Questions 23-28) about procedural aspects of regulation. Banning or heavily restricting prediction markets won't eliminate demand; it will just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms. I've seen friends shift to less safe venues when certain contracts were restricted here in the US. Thats not protecting consumers; its putting us at greater risk. The CFTC should focus on regulating these markets within the US, using the tools you already have to prevent manipulation and insider trading, as discussed in Topic Area A (Questions 1-6).
I know there are real concerns about manipulation or insider information, but those issues are already illegal under existing laws. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few bad actors punishes everyone else. Instead of broad bans, I believe targeted rules can address specific risks while preserving the benefits of prediction markets.
I respectfully ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible and safe for participants like me. Let's lead in financial innovation rather than driving it offshore. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jonathan Moreno Tejeda
