Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jared Keeney, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Washington state writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe prediction markets are valuable and worth regulating in a balanced way, not banning or over-restricting.
I rely on prediction markets for information that I can't get anywhere else. Whether it's an election outcome or some other major public event, the prices on these markets often tell a clearer story than polls or pundits. I've seen firsthand how they cut through the noise and give a real sense of what might happen. This isn't just helpful for me as a trader, it's useful for anyone trying to make sense of the world, from regular folks to policymakers. I think the CFTC should recognize this value in price discovery and forecasting when considering regulations, especially as raised in Questions 7 and 8 under the Public Interest section.
Another thing that matters to me is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, give people like me a fair shot to engage with these tools. It's not gambling, it's about research and judgment, much like trading stocks. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, I worry it will push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where there are no protections. I've looked at some of those sites, and they feel far sketchier than a regulated exchange. Keeping markets like Kalshi operational and accessible under sensible rules is the safer choice, and I hope the CFTC considers this when addressing Questions 23 and 24 on procedural aspects of regulation.
I'm not blind to the concerns about manipulation or insider trading. I get that those are real risks. But the CFTC already has laws and tools to tackle bad actors, as noted in Questions 29 through 32 on inside information. Shutting down or overly limiting prediction markets to stop a few cheaters punishes everyone else who uses them responsibly. It's like closing a highway because some people speed. Use the rules you have to catch the bad guys, don't block the road for the rest of us.
I strongly support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets open and safe for regular people like me. They provide better forecasts, help with public decision-making, and give us a stake in understanding important events. Please don't let over-restriction or bans drive this activity offshore. I'm happy to see the CFTC taking a thoughtful approach with this ANPR, and I urge you to craft rules that protect innovation and access.
Sincerely,
Jared Keeney
