Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brian Swanson, and Im a trader and investor based in the District of Columbia. Im writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive used prediction markets a few times myself, and I believe they offer unique value that deserves thoughtful regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions.
As someone who follows markets and public events closely, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information thats often more accurate than polls or pundits. During the last election cycle, I checked platforms like Kalshi to get a sense of the odds on key races. The prices reflected a clearer picture than what I was hearing on cable news or reading in opinion pieces. That kind of forecasting isnt just helpful for traders like me; its valuable for anyone trying to make sense of uncertain events, including journalists, policymakers, and everyday citizens. I think the CFTC should recognize this public benefit when considering how to regulate event contracts, especially in response to Questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation and public interest.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are just gaming. Trading on these markets isnt a roll of the dice. It takes research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. Ive spent hours digging into data on election turnout or policy proposals before making a trade. These contracts serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and even hedging against uncertainty that affects my investments. Labeling them as gambling, as discussed in Questions 15 and 16, misses the point of their utility. Theyre a legitimate tool, not a game.
Another concern Ive heard is about informed trading or insider information, as raised in Questions 29 and 30. I believe informed traders actually improve price discovery. When people with real knowledge participate, the market prices get sharper, and that benefits everyone, not just the traders. Of course, outright insider trading or manipulation is wrong, but the CFTC already has laws and tools to tackle that. Punishing the whole market for a few bad actors would be a mistake. Its better to enforce existing rules than to ban or over-restrict these platforms.
Living in D.C., Im surrounded by political noise, and prediction markets cut through that with hard data. They give regular people like me a chance to participate in understanding and even profiting from public events. I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets accessible on registered platforms, rather than driving activity to unregulated offshore sites. Please craft rules that protect consumers while preserving the freedom to engage in legal, regulated markets.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Brian Swanson
