Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Israel Israily, and I'm just an everyday citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a financial expert or a lawyer, but I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe strongly that well-regulated prediction markets are valuable and worth supporting.
Ive found prediction markets to be a unique tool. Unlike stocks, where hype can create bubbles that mess with peoples perception of value, these markets force you to face reality. If youre wrong about a fact, theres a direct financial cost. That keeps things grounded, and its why I think the prices on these platforms often reflect truth better than polls or pundits. I trade to stay engaged with events that affect my life, like elections or economic indicators, and I value having a legal, regulated space to do that. Its not gambling to me; its about research and making informed calls, just like any other investment.
Im worried, though, about the risk of over-restricting or banning these markets. I understand the CFTCs concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I agree consumer protection matters. But the answer isnt to shut things down. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle bad actors, as seen in other derivatives markets. Use those. Banning or heavily restricting prediction markets will just push people like me to unregulated offshore platforms, which are way less safe and offer no oversight. Id much rather trade on a regulated U.S. platform like Kalshi, where theres accountability.
I also think the U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation. If we over-regulate, were handing that edge to other countries. Lets keep this industry here, under proper supervision. Im all for proportionate rules that target specific risks, like manipulation, without throwing out entire categories of contracts. And on the flip side, informed trading isnt a problem; it actually helps. When people with good information trade, the prices get sharper, and that benefits everyone, not just traders.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulation should focus on transparency and enforcing existing anti-fraud rules, not blanket restrictions. And on Question 29, regarding inside information, I believe informed trading often improves price discovery, as long as its not illegal insider activity, which is already banned.
I urge you to support prediction markets with fair, targeted regulation. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep them legal and safe for regular people like me to participate in, right here in the U.S.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Israel Israily
