Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Blevins, and I'm writing from Colorado as an everyday citizen and father of four. My wife and I both recently lost our jobs, and in our small town, there aren't many employment options. I turned to prediction markets, specifically Kalshi, as a potential way to help with our financial uncertainties. I put in the last of what we had, hoping to make something work. At first, it seemed okay, but I've lost every single bet I've placed. I'm down to nothing, not even a dollar to trade with. I'm new to this, so maybe it's just me, but something feels off about how quickly things turn sour after I place a bet. I'm not saying it's rigged, but the sudden drops in market percentages right after I commit, with no time to cash out, leave me scratching my head. Still, I believe in the value of these markets and want to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516).
I support regulated prediction markets because they give people like me a chance to participate in something that feels bigger than just gambling. I don't think event contracts should be called gaming. They serve a real purpose. For me, it was about trying to make ends meet by making informed guesses on things like economic trends or election outcomes that could affect my family. It takes research and thought, just like any other kind of investing. Banning or over-restricting these markets would take away a tool that regular folks can use to try and get ahead, or at least hedge against uncertainty.
I also believe informed trading makes these markets better for everyone. When people who know something trade, the prices reflect real information. That helps even someone like me whos just starting out, because I can see what the market thinks is likely. Yes, I'm worried about fairness after my losses, and I wonder if some traders have an edge I can't see. But shutting down the whole market over that isn't the answer. The CFTC already has rules against manipulation and insider trading. Use those tools to catch bad actors instead of punishing everyone by limiting access.
I'm especially drawn to your questions on public interest, like in Question 7, about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think prediction markets are innovative and should be allowed to grow, but Id like to see protections to make sure small players like me aren't always on the losing end of sudden shifts. And on Question 29, about whether informed traders help price discovery, I think they do, but there needs to be a way to keep things fair so new traders aren't just cannon fodder.
Please support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. People like me need options, and with the right oversight, these markets can be a fair shot for regular citizens to participate in something useful. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
John Blevins
