Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Erik Olsen, and I'm an everyday citizen from Minnesota writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their existence under fair and sensible regulation. I believe these markets offer unique value and that the CFTC has a chance to shape them in a way that benefits Americans like me while keeping risks in check.
I care deeply about my freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't just for big investors or institutions; they give regular people a chance to engage with real-world events in a meaningful way. I see them as a tool for understanding complex issues, not as gambling. To me, trading on an event contract takes research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. These contracts serve real economic purposes, like helping people hedge risks or make sense of uncertain outcomes. Labeling them as "gaming" feels like a misstep when they can offer so much practical value.
I'm also worried about what happens if we over-restrict or ban these markets. I've read about platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, and that kind of regulation seems far safer than pushing activity to unregulated offshore sites. If the U.S. cracks down too hard, people will just turn to less secure options outside our borders. That doesn't protect anyone; it just puts Americans at greater risk. On top of that, I think the U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation. We shouldn't cede this space to other countries. Let's set the standard for how prediction markets can work responsibly.
One thing that stands out to me is how informed trading can actually help everyone. When people with real knowledge participate, the prices in these markets get more accurate. That benefits not just traders but anyone who looks at the data, from journalists to policymakers. I think the CFTC should consider this when looking at questions like 29 and 30 in the ANPR, about inside information and price discovery. The answer isn't to shut down participation but to focus on enforcing existing laws against misuse of nonpublic information.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Craft rules that address specific risks while allowing innovation and access for everyday citizens like me. Let's keep these markets safe, transparent, and open to Americans under your oversight, not driven offshore.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Erik Olsen
