Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Marc Crusan, and I'm just a regular citizen from Oregon writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets myself, but I've been reading up on them, and I strongly support having these markets regulated in a fair and balanced way.
I believe prediction markets offer something valuable that we don't get from polls or pundits. They seem to cut through the noise and give more accurate forecasts about events that matter to all of us, whether it's an election or an economic shift. That kind of information could help everyday people like me make better decisions, and I think it could even help policymakers see things more clearly. Plus, from what I've read, academic research backs this up. Studies show these markets pull together data in a transparent way, which benefits everyone, not just traders.
I'm also worried about what happens if we don't regulate these markets properly. I've seen how platforms like Kalshi operate under CFTC oversight, and that feels a lot safer than pushing people toward shady offshore sites with no rules. If we over-restrict or ban prediction markets here, that's where activity will go, and regular folks won't have any protection. Regulation should keep consumers safe, not drive us into riskier corners.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but aren't those already illegal? From what I understand, the CFTC has strong tools to go after bad actors in other markets. Why not use those same tools here instead of banning whole categories of contracts? And speaking of categories, I don't think event contracts are gambling. They help people and businesses hedge real risks, like a policy change affecting my taxes or a small business owner's costs. That's not a game; it's practical.
I'd like to address a couple of your specific questions. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulation should encourage innovation while setting clear rules to keep markets fair. And on Question 15, about defining gaming, I believe these contracts serve legitimate economic purposes like price discovery and hedging, not entertainment. Also, on Question 29, I think informed trading actually helps make prices more accurate, which benefits everyone in the market.
I hope the CFTC will support prediction markets with proportionate rules that address real risks without shutting down something useful. Let's keep these markets safe and accessible for regular people like me, not just big players. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Marc Crusan
