Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nolan Ewell, and I'm a finance professional from Washington state. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share my perspective as someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi.
As a finance professional, I value the unique information that prediction markets provide. I've used platforms like Kalshi to trade on election outcomes and other public events, and I can tell you the forecasts are often more accurate than polls or pundit opinions. This isn't just helpful for me as a trader; it's valuable for society as a whole. When I'm deciding how political or economic events might impact my investments or financial planning, the aggregated data from these markets gives me a clearer picture than most other sources. I believe this kind of transparency benefits everyone, from individual citizens to policymakers.
What concerns me is the idea of banning or over-restricting these markets. I've seen firsthand how regulated platforms like Kalshi operate with clear rules and oversight, which makes them a safe space for participation. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, I worry that activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms where there are no protections at all. I've looked at some of those sites, and they lack the transparency and accountability of a CFTC-registered market. Pushing trading overseas doesn't solve problems; it makes them worse by taking away the ability to monitor and enforce rules. I'd much rather see the U.S. lead on this front with smart, proportionate regulation.
I also want to address the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Trading on prediction markets isn't gambling to me. It requires research and judgment, much like any other financial instrument I deal with in my work. Shutting down access or labeling this as "gaming" feels unfair and ignores the real economic purpose these markets serve. Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I urge you to consider how innovation and consumer protection can coexist. Prediction markets offer unique benefits for price discovery and risk management, and I believe the CFTC can address risks without broad prohibitions.
In closing, I ask that the CFTC support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't ban or overly restrict them. Focus on using existing tools to prevent manipulation and insider trading while allowing platforms like Kalshi to operate under clear guidelines. This approach keeps markets safe, transparent, and accessible to people like me who value their insights.
Sincerely,
Nolan Ewell
