Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kelly Stockton, and I'm a trader and investor based in Florida. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope my perspective as someone who uses these platforms can help inform your approach.
I rely on prediction markets to make informed decisions about events that impact my financial planning. Whether it's an election outcome that could affect tax policy or a Federal Reserve decision that might influence interest rates, the prices on these markets give me insights I can't find in polls or news commentary. This isn't gambling, not by a long shot. Trading on Kalshi requires research, analysis, and real-world judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. These event contracts serve a legitimate economic purpose by helping people like me hedge risks and gain clarity on uncertain outcomes. Treating them as "gaming" would be a mistake, as it ignores their value in price discovery and risk management.
One thing I want to stress is the importance of regulation over prohibition. I trade on a platform like Kalshi because it's regulated by the CFTC and operates as a designated contract market. That gives me confidence that there are safeguards against manipulation and fraud. If prediction markets were overly restricted or banned, people wouldn't just stop trading. They'd move to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight, no consumer protection, and no accountability. I've seen mentions of those sites online, and I wouldn't touch them. Keeping activity on regulated markets like Kalshi is far safer for everyone involved.
I noticed a few questions in the ANPR that relate to my concerns. Specifically, regarding Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, I believe regulated prediction markets strike that balance by fostering innovation while keeping traders safe under CFTC oversight. Also, in response to Question 15 about defining "gaming" versus legitimate markets, I urge you to recognize that event contracts are not games of chance but tools for economic decision-making.
I understand there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, and those aren't trivial issues. But the CFTC already has laws and tools to address bad actors, whether it's enforcing insider trading bans or prosecuting market manipulation. Shutting down or over-restricting prediction markets punishes honest traders like me instead of targeting the real problems.
I ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible under clear, fair rules that protect consumers while allowing innovation to thrive. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Kelly Stockton
