Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Dustin, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Maryland writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a lawyer or a finance expert, but Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and Ive got a real stake in how you decide to regulate these markets. Im asking you to support fair, proportionate rules that keep prediction markets accessible to people like me, without banning or over-restricting them.
I love following sports, and honestly, Kalshi feels like a fair market where Im not getting taken advantage of by bookmakers trying to tilt the odds against me. Its not just fun, though. Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets give better information than polls or pundits when it comes to elections and big public events. That kind of accuracy helps me make sense of the world, and I think its valuable for everyone, not just traders. Plus, these markets let regular folks like me participate in something thats usually locked up for big institutions. Keeping that access open feels fair and makes the prices more accurate since more people are weighing in.
I also want to be clear that this isnt gambling to me. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment about real-world events, just like investing in stocks. Calling event contracts gaming doesnt make sense when they help people and businesses hedge real risks, like policy changes or economic shifts. Ive used these markets to think through how election outcomes might hit my wallet, and thats a legitimate economic purpose. On top of that, academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets improve information for everyone. I think the US should be leading the way on this kind of financial innovation, not letting other countries take the lead.
Im not blind to the risks, though. I get that manipulation and insider trading are concerns, and I support strong consumer protection. But the CFTC already has tools to tackle those problems, right? Use what youve got instead of broad bans that punish regular users. If you over-restrict platforms like Kalshi, people like me might end up on unregulated offshore sites, which are way less safe. Id hate to go back to sportsbooks just because a regulated option got shut down. Regulated markets are the better choice, hands down.
I noticed some of your questions, like in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), ask about balancing innovation and protection, and in Topic C (Questions 15-22) on defining gaming. Id urge you to see event contracts as tools for price discovery and hedging, not gambling, and to focus on targeted rules over categorical restrictions. Let informed trading happen, since it makes the market smarter for everyone.
Please support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets open and safe for everyday Americans like me. Dont let heavy-handed rules push this valuable tool out of reach.
Sincerely,
Troy Carbaugh
