Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Alvin Anderson, and I'm a journalist and content creator based in Michigan. I focus on sports and other media topics, often working with various agencies to assess trends and risks. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets. As someone new to these platforms, I've quickly seen their value, and I believe they deserve thoughtful regulation rather than overly restrictive rules.
In my work, Im constantly trying to gauge public sentiment and predict outcomes, whether it's a major sports event or a cultural shift. I've started using Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated platform, to inform my reporting by tracking market predictions on various events. What strikes me most is how much more accurate these markets are compared to traditional polls or pundit opinions. The collective wisdom of traders, putting real money on the line, cuts through the noise and bias I often see in my field. This isn't just helpful for me; its a public good when better information is out there for everyone to access, from journalists like me to regular citizens.
Beyond forecasting, I see potential in prediction markets for hedging personal and business risks, something Im starting to explore. As a freelancer, my income can swing based on economic or regulatory changes. Being able to hedge against policy shifts or inflation data that impacts my costs, like a CPI release affecting travel expenses for on-site reporting, would be a game-changer. This isnt gambling, in my view. Its about using research and judgment to protect myself financially, much like any other investment.
Im aware of the CFTCs concerns, especially around manipulation or insider trading, as raised in questions 29-32 of the ANPR. I agree those are risks worth addressing. But banning or overly restricting these markets isnt the answer. The CFTC already has tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other derivatives markets, and those can be adapted here. Plus, laws already prohibit federal employees from trading on nonpublic information. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing everyone else, including people like me who use them responsibly.
I also want to touch on the public interest aspect from questions 7-14. Prediction markets balance innovation with practical benefits like price discovery. They democratize access to information, letting regular folks participate alongside bigger players. Thats a feature worth preserving with regulation thats proportionate, not prohibitive.
I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with clear, fair rules that address specific risks without stifling their potential. Theyre a powerful tool for forecasting and risk management, and with the right oversight, they can thrive while protecting consumers. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Alvin Anderson
