Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Daniel Hicks, and I'm just a regular guy from Oklahoma writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a trader or a financial expert, but I follow prediction markets closely because I think theyre a fascinating way to get a read on whats happening in the world. I dont use platforms like Kalshi much, honestly, since I only have it on my phone and dont have the time to mess with it on a computer to figure out how to make trades. Still, I believe these markets have real value, and I want to see them regulated in a fair way that lets everyday folks like me participate if we choose to.
I support well-regulated prediction markets because they give regular people a chance to engage with important events and ideas in a unique way. Ive read about how these markets often predict outcomes better than polls or experts, and that kind of data should be available to everyone, not just big institutions. Academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets can pull together information from lots of different sources to create clearer pictures of what might happen. That transparency benefits all of us, whether we trade or not. Plus, I think informed trading actually helps make those predictions sharper, which is good for the public.
What worries me is the idea of over-restricting these markets or banning whole categories of contracts. Id rather see the CFTC focus on targeted rules to handle specific problems like manipulation or insider trading, without shutting down the whole system. Regulated platforms like Kalshi are a much safer option than pushing people toward shady, offshore sites with no oversight. If the U.S. cracks down too hard, we risk losing ground to other countries who embrace this kind of financial innovation. I want America to lead the way on stuff like this, not fall behind.
I noticed a few of the questions in your notice that tie into what Im saying. For instance, Question 7 asks about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think you can do both by setting clear rules without overreaching. Question 29, on whether informed traders help price discovery, hits on why I think these markets are useful in the first place. Their input makes the data better for everyone.
Im just an everyday citizen, but I value the freedom to take part in legal, regulated markets if I want to. Please support proportionate regulation for prediction markets and avoid broad bans that could hurt regular folks access or push activity to less safe places. Thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Daniel Hicks
