Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Daniel Bernal, and I'm a student from New York. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to society, and I want to explain why I think the CFTC should encourage their growth with fair rules, not heavy restrictions.
I've always been fascinated by how markets can aggregate information, and as a student, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets offer insights you can't get from polls or pundits. For example, during the last election cycle, I followed Kalshi's markets on key races and noticed how the odds often shifted before any major news broke. Those price movements turned out to be more accurate than many expert predictions I read. This isn't just useful for traders like me; it's valuable for anyone trying to understand what's really happening in politics or other public events. If regular people like me can participate in these markets, it makes the information even more robust because more perspectives are factored into the price.
I also want to stress that trading on prediction markets isn't gambling. It takes research and critical thinking, much like any other investment. I spend time reading news, analyzing data, and weighing probabilities before placing a trade. Banning or over-regulating these markets would cut off my freedom to engage in a legal, regulated activity that sharpens my understanding of the world. Plus, regulated platforms like Kalshi are a safer place for this activity compared to offshore sites with no oversight.
I'm particularly drawn to Questions 7 and 8 in the ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection and the public interest benefits of prediction markets. I think the CFTC can protect consumers by focusing on transparency and enforcing existing laws against manipulation or insider trading, without resorting to broad bans. Shutting down these markets to stop a few bad actors would be unfair to the rest of us who use them responsibly. And as for public interest, the forecasting accuracy of prediction markets is a clear benefit, helping everyone from journalists to policymakers make better decisions.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Please don't let overly restrictive policies limit access for everyday people like me who value these platforms for their unique insights and democratic nature. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Daniel Bernal
