Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Javarious Tanner, and Im a small business owner from Mississippi. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support their continued availability under fair, proportionate regulation by the CFTC. I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me, and to society as a whole, and I want to share my perspective.
Running a business in Mississippi means Im always looking for better information to make decisions, whether its about economic trends or upcoming policy changes that could affect my costs or customers. Prediction markets have given me insights I cant get from polls or news pundits. Ive seen firsthand how their forecasts on elections and public events are often more accurate, and that helps me plan better. This isnt just about me, though. When these markets aggregate information from lots of participants, everyone benefits from clearer price discovery, even if they dont trade themselves.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people will just turn to those riskier options, and thats worse for consumer protection. The US should be leading in financial innovation, not pushing it overseas. I want my country to stay competitive, and well-regulated prediction markets can help us do that.
Let me be upfront about concerns like manipulation or insider trading. I get why those are issues. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle fraud and abuse in other derivatives markets. Use those same tools here. Banning broad categories of event contracts or over-restricting them doesnt solve the problem; it just punishes honest participants like me. Targeted rules to address specific risks make more sense. And honestly, informed trading often improves price discovery, which benefits everyone. Academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets improve transparency and data for public decision-making.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I believe regulation should encourage safe participation, not shut it down. On Question 15, regarding defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I dont see event contracts as gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks or gaining insights, much like other investments.
I urge the CFTC to support prediction markets with reasonable, targeted rules. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Keep them accessible to everyday folks like me, under your oversight, so we can benefit from better information while staying protected.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Javarious Tanner
