Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Elijah Austin, and I'm a software engineer based in Arizona. I'm writing to provide my input on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm relatively new to prediction markets, but I've come to see their value and potential, and I strongly support their development under fair and proportionate regulation by the CFTC.
As someone who works in tech, I appreciate tools that harness data to solve problems and uncover insights. Prediction markets do exactly that by aggregating information from a wide range of participants, producing forecasts that are often more accurate than traditional polls or expert opinions. This isn't just useful for traders; it benefits everyone by providing clearer signals about future events, whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator. I believe this kind of price discovery can help inform public decision-making, and I want to see regular people like me have the freedom to participate in these legal, regulated markets. Shutting out everyday individuals would mean the best information stays locked up with big institutions, and that doesn't seem fair.
I also value consumer protection, which is why I think regulation is critical. I've read about offshore platforms that operate without oversight, and I worry that overly restrictive rules could push more activity to those unsafe spaces. A well-regulated market here in the US, under the CFTC's watch, would give people like me confidence to participate without fear of fraud or manipulation. On that note, I want to address a concern I've seen raised about insider trading. I understand the worry, but I don't think the answer is to ban or overly limit prediction markets. Informed trading actually improves price discovery, making the market's predictions more accurate, which benefits all participants. Existing laws already prohibit federal employees and others from abusing nonpublic information, and the CFTC has tools to tackle manipulation. Let's enforce those rules rather than punishing everyone by restricting access.
I'm particularly interested in your questions under Topic B, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 9 on price discovery. I urge you to prioritize rules that encourage participation and innovation while using your existing authority to address bad actors. Prediction markets aren't gambling; they require research and judgment, much like any other investment. They deserve a regulatory framework that recognizes their unique value.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I ask that the CFTC support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, ensuring access for everyday Americans while safeguarding against risks. Let's not ban or over-restrict a tool with so much potential to inform and empower.
Sincerely,
Elijah Austin
