Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jose Martinez, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support them being regulated in a fair and balanced way. I believe they can provide valuable information and economic benefits if done right, and I want to see the US lead in this space.
Ive been reading up on prediction markets lately, and what strikes me is how they can give us better information than polls or pundits for making decisions, whether its about elections, economic trends, or other big events. That kind of price discovery helps everyone, not just traders. Its also clear to me that the US needs to stay competitive in financial innovation. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, were just pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight. Id much rather see a regulated market like Kalshi, under the CFTCs watch, than have people turn to shady foreign sites with no consumer protections.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other markets like futures or commodities. Why not use those same tools here instead of broad bans? Banning whole categories of event contracts punishes regular folks like me who want to participate in a legitimate way. Plus, research Ive come across shows that informed trading actually improves price discovery, which benefits everyone by making the markets predictions more accurate. And lets be honest, these contracts arent gambling. They serve real purposes, like hedging against uncertainty or figuring out what the future might hold based on hard data.
Id like to touch on a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulation is the answer, not restriction. Keep markets safe and transparent under CFTC rules, and dont let offshore alternatives become the only option. On Question 29, about inside information, I believe informed traders can make markets better as long as manipulation is policed with existing laws. And on Question 15, regarding what counts as gaming, I dont see event contracts as gambling when theyre tied to real-world outcomes with economic value.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Target the specific risks with focused rules, and dont over-restrict or ban them outright. Lets keep the US at the forefront of financial innovation while protecting consumers through strong, fair oversight.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jose Martinez
