Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Rafael Lorenzo, and I'm a business owner from Florida. Im writing to you about the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. As someone living in a capitalist country, I believe in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets, especially during times of high inflation when every bit of extra income helps. I want to share why I think these markets are valuable and why the CFTC should focus on proportionate regulation instead of overly restrictive rules or bans.
Running a business in Florida, I deal with uncertainty every day, whether its economic shifts, policy changes, or even weather events that impact my operations. Prediction markets like Kalshi give me a way to hedge some of that risk and access information I cant find anywhere else. The prices on these platforms often predict outcomes better than polls or news pundits, and that helps me make smarter decisions. Its not just good for me; its good for everyone when better information is out there for public decision-making. I think the CFTC should recognize this value, especially in response to questions 7 and 8 about the public interest and price discovery benefits of event contracts.
I also want to stress that these markets are not gambling. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as gaming undercuts their real economic purpose, like hedging or price discovery. I urge the CFTC to consider this in questions 15 and 16 about defining legitimate market activities. Plus, regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the U.S. pushes too hard with bans or heavy rules, people like me will just turn to less safe options outside the country. Thats a loss for consumer protection, which ties into questions 9 and 10 about balancing innovation and safety.
The U.S. has a chance to lead in financial innovation here. Why should we let other countries take the lead on something so promising? And on the concern about insider trading or manipulation, I get it, those are real risks. But the answer isnt banning entire markets. Its about targeted rules and enforcing the laws we already have. Informed trading actually makes prices more accurate, benefiting all of us. This connects to questions 29 and 30 about the role of informed traders and insider information risks.
Im asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without shutting down the benefits of prediction markets. Lets keep these markets legal, safe, and accessible to people like me who use them responsibly. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Rafael Lorenzo
