Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jashon Williams, and I'm a trader and investor based in Louisiana. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and want to share why I believe they are valuable, both for me personally and for society as a whole.
As someone who trades regularly, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information you just can't get anywhere else. I've watched these markets predict election outcomes and economic events with way more accuracy than polls or TV pundits. For example, during the last election cycle, I relied on Kalshi's pricing to gauge what might happen with certain policies that could impact my investments. That kind of real-time insight helps me make better decisions, and I know its useful to others too, whether they trade or not. The public, the media, even policymakers can benefit from these forecasts.
Beyond forecasting, prediction markets also let me hedge real risks. As an investor, Im exposed to uncertainties like changes in interest rates or new regulations that could hit my portfolio hard. Trading event contracts on platforms like Kalshi allows me to offset some of that exposure. Its not gambling, its a practical tool, just like using futures to hedge commodity prices. I know small businesses and individuals could use these markets the same way, to protect against things like policy shifts or economic data releases that affect their bottom line.
I also want to address consumer protection, which I see as a key issue in your questions 7 through 14 on public interest. I understand the concern about risks to traders, but banning or over-restricting prediction markets isnt the answer. If these markets are pushed offshore to unregulated platforms, consumers like me lose the protections that come with CFTC oversight. Id much rather trade on a regulated exchange like Kalshi, where there are clear rules and accountability, than take my chances on some foreign site with no safeguards. Regulation should keep us safe, not drive us away.
Im also aware of worries about insider trading or manipulation, as raised in questions 29 to 32. I get why thats a concern, but those issues are already illegal under existing laws. The CFTC has the authority to crack down on bad actors without shutting down entire markets. Punishing everyone for the actions of a few doesnt make sense to me. Itd be like closing the stock market over insider trading scandals.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while keeping these valuable tools accessible to everyday traders like me. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jashon Williams
