Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is James Powers, and I'm just a regular citizen from Mississippi writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been following this issue because I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe prediction markets have real value for people like me and for society as a whole. I appreciate the chance to weigh in before you draft formal rules.
I support well-regulated prediction markets because they provide information you can't find anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts are often more accurate than polls or pundits. For example, during the last election cycle, I relied on Kalshi's market prices to get a clearer picture of what might happen, and it beat the news predictions by a mile. Academic research backs this up, studies show these markets aggregate information in a way that's uniquely reliable. That benefits not just traders like me, but anyone who wants better data, whether it's journalists, policymakers, or regular folks trying to make sense of the world. I think the CFTC should consider this public good when answering questions 7 through 14 about balancing innovation and consumer protection.
I'm also concerned about transparency. Prediction markets make data public through their prices, and that's a big deal for someone like me who values knowing what's really going on. But if these markets get banned or over-restricted, that transparency disappears. Worse, activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight at all. I've looked at some of those sites, and they don't have the safeguards Kalshi does as a CFTC-registered market. Pushing trading overseas doesn't protect anyone, it just makes things riskier. I'd urge you to think about this in relation to questions 23 through 28 on procedural aspects and how to approach public interest determinations.
Finally, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we crack down too hard on prediction markets, we're handing the future of this technology to other countries. I don't want to see that happen. We have a chance to set the standard with smart, proportionate rules that address real risks like manipulation or insider trading without killing the whole concept. The CFTC already has tools to handle those issues, as noted in questions 29 through 32 on inside information. Let's use them instead of broad bans.
I hope you'll support regulated prediction markets and avoid restrictions that would push activity offshore or stifle innovation. Thanks for considering my perspective as you move forward.
Sincerely,
James Powers
