Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nathaniel Standridge, and I'm a software engineer from Colorado. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who works hard in the tech field to build a better life for my family, I actively trade on regulated prediction markets like Kalshi. I believe these markets are valuable, and I urge you to support proportionate regulation rather than bans or overly tight restrictions.
I got into prediction markets because they give me information I can't find anywhere else. Whether it's an election outcome or a major public event, the prices on these platforms often predict results more accurately than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand, and it helps me make better decisions, both financially and personally. This isn't just good for me; it helps society by providing clearer signals about whats likely to happen. I think this ties directly to your questions on public interest and price discovery, like in Questions 7 and 9. The data from these markets could even help policymakers and the public make smarter choices if it's transparent and accessible.
I'm also a big believer in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. As a tech guy, I value innovation, and I think the US should be leading the way in financial tools like prediction markets, not falling behind other countries. But I get the need for consumer protection, which is why I strongly prefer trading on regulated platforms like Kalshi over risky offshore alternatives. Banning or over-restricting these markets would just push people like me to less safe options. Your Questions 23 and 24 about public interest determinations hit on this. I think regulation should focus on keeping markets safe and fair, not shutting them down.
Another thing that bugs me is when event contracts are called gambling. Thats not what this is. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. It serves real purposes, like hedging risks or discovering prices, as you ask about in Question 15. Plus, the CFTC already has tools to stop manipulation and insider trading. You dont need to ban entire categories to deal with a few bad actors; just enforce the rules youve got. And honestly, informed trading makes prices more accurate, which benefits everyone, as touched on in Question 29.
Im not blind to the risks, but shutting down prediction markets isnt the answer. Regulate them, sure. Keep them safe and transparent. But dont take away a tool thats useful for forecasting, innovation, and giving regular folks like me a fair shot at participating. I hope youll craft rules that support well-regulated prediction markets while addressing specific concerns with targeted solutions.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Nathaniel Standridge
