Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jaedon Mitchell, and I'm just a regular citizen from Arkansas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe well-regulated prediction markets are valuable and worth supporting. I appreciate the chance to weigh in on this.
I rely on prediction markets for information that I can't get anywhere else. I've noticed over and over that their forecasts on elections and big public events are way more accurate than what I see from polls or TV pundits. That kind of insight helps me make sense of what's happening, and I think it's helpful for everyone, not just traders like me. Plus, I use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For example, Ive placed trades on election outcomes that could impact my taxes or local business regulations here in Arkansas. It's not gambling to me; it's a practical tool, much like investing in stocks after doing your homework.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, feel a lot safer than the unregulated offshore sites out there. If we over-restrict or ban these markets, I worry people will just turn to those riskier options instead. That seems like a step backward. And from what I've read, including academic studies by economists, prediction markets do a real job of aggregating information and producing transparent data. They're not just games; they serve a genuine economic purpose.
I'm particularly drawn to a couple of the questions you raised in the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulated markets already strike a good balance by giving folks like me access while having rules to prevent manipulation. And on Question 15, regarding defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly believe event contracts aren't gambling. They take research and judgment, and they help with price discovery and risk management.
I understand there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, but I don't think the answer is to shut down these markets. The CFTC already has laws and tools to tackle bad actors, and those should be enforced rather than punishing everyone by limiting access. I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Please don't ban or overly restrict them. Theyre a useful tool for people like me, and with the right oversight, they can keep benefiting society.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jaedon Mitchell
