Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Michael Rodriguez, and I'm a student from California. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they serve an important purpose when regulated properly. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets instead of banning or over-restricting them.
As a student, I find prediction markets incredibly useful for getting a clearer picture of public events, especially elections. I've noticed that the forecasts on these platforms often seem more accurate than what I hear from news pundits or see in polls. It's not just about placing a bet. It's about accessing information that helps me understand the world better. For example, during the last election cycle, I checked platforms like Kalshi to see what people thought the outcomes might be, and it gave me a sense of the real probabilities, not just opinions. That kind of insight is valuable to everyone, not just traders.
I also believe in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't gambling in my view. They take research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. Banning or heavily restricting them wouldn't protect people like me; it would just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where there are no safeguards at all. I've seen friends talk about using overseas sites because they can't access certain contracts here. That worries me. A regulated market like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, is far safer. It keeps things transparent and gives the Commission the ability to step in if something goes wrong.
I'm also concerned about the idea of over-restricting these markets based on fears of insider trading or manipulation. I understand the concern, and its a valid one. But those issues are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to address them. Shutting down or limiting prediction markets punishes regular users like me while the real bad actors just move offshore. In response to Questions 29 and 30 from the ANPR, I think informed traders often help make prices more accurate, and the focus should be on enforcing existing laws against insider trading, not banning entire markets.
I hope the CFTC will take a balanced approach. Please create rules that address specific risks without stifling innovation or pushing activity to less safe platforms. Prediction markets can be a powerful tool for forecasting and understanding public events, and I believe they should be accessible under proper regulation. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Michael Rodriguez
