Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Stephanie Jackson, and I'm just a regular citizen from Ohio writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. I hope you'll consider my perspective as you shape these rules.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted a better way to understand what's happening in the world. Polls and pundits are often wrong, and I've found that the prices on these markets are usually a lot closer to the truth. Whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator, the forecasts on prediction markets cut through the noise. This isn't just helpful for me as a trader, its valuable for everyone who wants clearer information about the future. I think that's a public good worth protecting.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. To me, trading on these markets feels more like investing. I do my homework, read up on current events, and make decisions based on what I learn, just like I would with stocks. These contracts serve real purposes, like helping me hedge against things that could impact my life, such as policy changes that affect my budget. Calling this gambling feels like a misstep, and I hope the CFTC sees the economic value here. I'm glad to see questions 15 to 22 in the ANPR asking about how to define gaming versus legitimate markets, and I urge you to recognize that prediction markets fall on the legitimate side.
One big worry I have is that banning or over-restricting these markets will just push people like me to unregulated offshore platforms. I've seen those sites out there, and they don't have the safeguards that a regulated market like Kalshi offers under CFTC oversight. If the goal is to protect consumers, driving activity to sketchy offshore venues seems like the opposite of a solution. I noticed questions 7 to 14 in the ANPR touch on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and I think the answer lies in smart regulation, not heavy-handed limits.
I'm not blind to the risks. I know insider trading and manipulation are concerns, but those are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to tackle them. Shutting down or crippling prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing the rest of us who use these platforms responsibly.
I respectfully ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep them accessible to everyday people like me while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Don't let over-restriction push this valuable tool out of reach or offshore. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Stephanie Jackson
