Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Alyssa Garcia, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting them.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted a clearer picture of what might happen in elections and other big public events. I'm not a political insider or a professional analyst, just someone who pays attention to the news and wants to make sense of it. What I've found is that prediction markets consistently give more accurate forecasts than polls or pundits on TV. For example, during the last election cycle, I noticed the prices on Kalshi reflected shifts in momentum way before the polls caught up. That kind of real-time insight isn't just helpful for traders, it's valuable for anyone trying to understand what's really going on. I think that's a public good worth protecting.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get why those are issues to watch. But I don't think the answer is to shut down or overly restrict these markets. The CFTC already has rules and tools to go after bad actors in other financial markets, and those can work here too. Banning prediction markets or making them too hard to access would just push activity to unregulated offshore sites, which seems way riskier. Plus, laws already stop federal employees and others from trading on nonpublic info. Let's enforce what's on the books instead of punishing everyone else.
I'm particularly drawn to some of the questions in your ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 11 on the public benefits of price discovery. I think prediction markets strike that balance by letting regular people like me participate in a system that creates better information for everyone. These aren't gambling dens, they're tools for understanding the world, no different from researching stocks or commodities.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Don't ban or over-restrict something that provides real value to citizens trying to make informed decisions. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Alyssa Garcia
