Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Wei Chen, and I'm a trader and investor based in South Carolina. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value, both for me personally and for society at large. I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets and hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow regular people like me to participate in these legal, transparent platforms.
As a trader, I value the unique information that prediction markets provide. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts are often more accurate than what you get from polls or TV pundits. Whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator, the prices on these markets cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. This isn't just useful for traders; it's valuable for anyone who wants to understand the world better, from business owners to everyday citizens.
What I care about most is the freedom to participate in markets that are legal and regulated. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than the unregulated offshore sites that pop up when access is restricted. If you push these markets underground by over-regulating or banning them, people will still trade, just in riskier places with no protections. Id rather see the CFTC focus on keeping these markets transparent and fair right here in the U.S. Regulated markets mean accountability, and that protects everyone involved.
I also believe that informed trading makes these markets better. When people with knowledge trade, it improves price discovery for all participants. Yes, insider trading is a concern, but its already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to enforce those laws. Banning or overly restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like punishing the rest of us who play by the rules. I think this ties directly to some of the questions in your ANPR, like Question 29 on whether informed traders help price discovery. My view is that they do, and the focus should be on policing misuse of information, not shutting down the whole system.
Im not saying there shouldnt be any rules. I get that consumer protection matters, and Im all for measures to prevent manipulation or fraud. But I hope the CFTC will take a balanced approach. Lets have rules that address real risks without killing off a useful tool. Prediction markets arent gambling; theyre a way to make sense of uncertainty, and I want to keep the ability to participate in them.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets and avoid broad bans or restrictions that would limit access for law-abiding traders like me.
Sincerely,
Wei Chen
