Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Eric Jimenez, and I'm a healthcare professional from California. I'm writing to share my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm relatively new to this space, but as someone who values accurate information and fair access to financial tools, I believe these markets offer real benefits to society and individuals like me.
In my work, I rely on trustworthy data to make decisions every day. That's why I find prediction markets so compelling. They consistently produce forecasts that are more accurate than polls or pundits, aggregating information in a way that's useful not just for traders, but for the public, policymakers, and even professionals like me who need to understand trends. Beyond that, these markets allow regular people to hedge real risks. For instance, a small business owner or even a family could use event contracts to offset uncertainties tied to elections, economic policies, or other major events that impact healthcare costs or insurance. This isn't gambling; it's a legitimate economic tool, much like trading stocks or commodities, requiring research and judgment about the real world.
I also worry about what happens if we over-restrict or ban these markets. Regulated platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If we push activity overseas by being too strict, we lose consumer protections and transparency. The US should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. I'm all for consumer protection, but it needs to come through smart regulation, not broad bans. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other markets; those can be adapted here without throwing out the baby with the bathwater. Proportionate, targeted rules make more sense than categorical restrictions.
Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets serve the public by improving price discovery and democratizing access to information. On Topic C (Questions 15-22), I urge you not to classify event contracts as gaming; they serve real economic purposes like hedging and forecasting. And regarding Topic E on inside information (Questions 29-32), I think informed trading actually helps price discovery, benefiting all participants, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
I hope the CFTC will support prediction markets with balanced regulation that protects consumers while preserving access and innovation. Please don't let overly restrictive rules push this valuable tool out of reach for Americans like me.
Sincerely,
Eric Jimenez
