Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Drew Lane, and I'm a student from Massachusetts with a strong interest in economics and public policy. I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I've seen firsthand how these markets provide unique value, both to individuals like me and to society at large.
Prediction markets aren't just a niche interest for me; they offer information I can't find anywhere else. I've noticed that their forecasts on elections and major public events often outperform polls and pundits. Last year, while following a tight Senate race, I relied on market prices to cut through the noise of biased reporting and get a clearer sense of what might happen. That kind of accuracy isn't just helpful for traders. It benefits everyone, from journalists to policymakers, who need reliable data to make decisions. I believe the CFTC should recognize this public good, especially when considering questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation with consumer protection.
I also value the ability to hedge personal financial risks through these markets. As a student planning my future, including potential business ventures, I can see how a market on economic policy or interest rate decisions could help me manage uncertainty around loans or career timing. This isn't gambling. It's a practical tool, much like any other investment, and I think question 15, about defining legitimate markets versus gaming, should reflect that distinction.
I'm all for regulation to prevent abuse, but I strongly believe it should be proportionate. Broad bans or overly restrictive rules punish everyone for the actions of a few. The CFTC already has tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading, as mentioned in questions 1 and 29. Let's use those instead of shutting down access. I also think informed trading, far from being a problem, improves price discovery. When knowledgeable people participate, the market gets smarter, and we all benefit. This ties directly to question 30 on whether informed traders aid price accuracy.
Finally, as someone who cares about academic research and U.S. competitiveness, I worry that over-regulating prediction markets could push innovation offshore and limit valuable data for study. These platforms encourage civic engagement by giving regular people like me a stake in understanding the world. I urge the CFTC to support this by crafting targeted rules that address specific risks without stifling the entire space.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I respectfully ask that you regulate prediction markets in a balanced way, ensuring access for everyday participants while using existing powers to prevent harm.
Sincerely,
Drew Lane
