Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Andrew Marotta, and I'm a trader and investor based in Florida. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets are valuable for individuals like me, for businesses, and for society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to adopt a balanced approach to regulation rather than imposing heavy restrictions or outright bans.
As someone who trades regularly, I see firsthand how prediction markets offer unique insights you can't get from polls or pundits. I've noticed that the prices on platforms like Kalshi often predict outcomes more accurately than so-called experts on TV or in the news. This isn't just helpful for traders; it's useful for anyone trying to make sense of uncertain events, whether that's an election, a Federal Reserve decision, or even a weather event. Beyond that, these markets let me hedge real risks in my financial life. For instance, I've used event contracts to offset potential impacts of policy changes or economic data releases that could affect my investments. This isn't gambling. It's a practical tool, just like trading stocks or futures.
I also believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or shut down prediction markets, we're just pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight. I've traded on Kalshi because it's regulated by the CFTC, and I feel safer knowing there are rules and protections in place. Banning or overly restricting these markets would force people like me to look elsewhere, and that's a step backward. We should be setting the standard for the world, not ceding ground to other countries.
I want to address a couple of specific questions from your ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I think prediction markets serve the public by providing transparent, accurate information and by allowing regular people to participate in financial tools that were once reserved for big institutions. On Question 29, about inside information, I agree there are risks, but the answer isn't to ban these markets. The CFTC already has tools to combat manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives, and those can be applied here without punishing law-abiding traders.
Im not blind to the concerns about manipulation or bad actors, but shutting down an entire market over a few potential issues is the wrong move. Its already illegal to trade on nonpublic information or manipulate prices, and the CFTC has the authority to enforce those laws. Let's focus on using those tools instead of broad prohibitions.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. These markets are a powerful resource for forecasting and risk management, and regular traders like me deserve the freedom to participate in legal, regulated platforms.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Andrew Marotta
