Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brad Hicks, and I'm a software engineer based in New Hampshire. I've been working in tech for over a decade, and in my spare time, I actively trade on prediction markets like Kalshi. I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide real value, both to me personally and to society, and I urge the CFTC to regulate them proportionately rather than imposing overly restrictive rules or bans.
As someone who trades on platforms like Kalshi, I can tell you that event contracts are not gambling. They serve genuine economic purposes. I use these markets to hedge risks that affect my life, like potential changes in interest rates that impact my mortgage decisions or election outcomes that could alter tech regulations affecting my industry. This isn't a game; it's a practical tool for managing uncertainty. I've also seen how the prices on these platforms often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or news pundits. That kind of information benefits everyone, not just traders like me.
I strongly believe regulated markets are the way to go. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, people won't stop trading; they'll just move to less secure venues where there's no accountability. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not handing the advantage to other countries by driving this activity underground.
I'm also not worried about manipulation or insider trading, because the CFTC already has powerful tools to address those issues. You've been policing derivatives markets for years; those same mechanisms can work here. Plus, informed trading actually helps. When people with real knowledge trade, it improves price discovery, and we all get better data. Banning markets to stop a few bad actors punishes everyone else, which just doesn't seem fair.
I'd like to touch on a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I think prediction markets serve the public by democratizing access to information and hedging tools. And on Question 29, about inside information, I believe informed traders often make markets more accurate, as long as existing laws against illegal insider trading are enforced.
I hope the CFTC will support a balanced approach. Regulate prediction markets to ensure fairness and transparency, but please don't ban or over-restrict them. They're a valuable innovation, and with the right oversight, they can thrive safely in the U.S.
Sincerely,
Brad Hicks
