Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Alex Akpinar, and I'm a student from Maryland. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm fairly new to prediction markets, but I've been studying them as part of my academic interests, and I strongly support their development under fair and proportionate regulation. I believe these markets offer unique value to society, and I want to share my perspective on why they should be encouraged rather than overly restricted.
As someone diving into economics and data analysis, I'm fascinated by how prediction markets aggregate information and often produce forecasts that are more accurate than traditional polls or pundit opinions. I've seen studies showing how platforms like Kalshi have outperformed surveys on election outcomes and other public events. This isn't just useful for traders; it helps everyone, from journalists to policymakers, make better decisions with better data. I also think there's real economic purpose here. Event contracts aren't gambling, in my view. They let people hedge personal or business risks, like protecting against policy changes or economic shifts that could affect tuition costs or future job prospects. To me, that's no different from other financial tools we already accept.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms under CFTC oversight, like Kalshi, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If we push too hard with restrictions, people will just go to those less safe options, and that hurts everyone. Plus, I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to handle issues like manipulation or insider trading. We don't need to ban or over-regulate these markets; we need to enforce the rules that are already in place. On top of that, informed trading isn't a problem, it's a benefit. When knowledgeable people trade, they improve price discovery, which helps make the market's predictions even more reliable for all of us.
I'd like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, regarding public interest, I think prediction markets serve the public by providing transparent data and forecasting tools that benefit society broadly. On Question 15, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I urge you not to classify event contracts as gaming. They serve real purposes like hedging and information gathering, just like other derivatives. And on Question 29, about inside information, I believe informed trading generally improves market accuracy, and existing laws already address bad actors.
As a student, I also see prediction markets as a goldmine for academic research. The data transparency they offer could help us understand public sentiment and economic trends in new ways. I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation that allows these markets to grow while addressing specific risks with targeted rules, not broad bans. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Alex Akpinar
