Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Zachary Long, and I'm a trader and investor based in New York. Ive been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value, and I hope the CFTC will regulate them in a way that encourages innovation while protecting consumers.
As someone who trades regularly, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer insights you just cant get elsewhere. The prices often predict election outcomes or other public events more accurately than polls or pundits. Thats not just helpful for traders like me, its valuable for anyone making decisions based on those events, whether its a business, a journalist, or even a policymaker. I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Letting regular people like me trade alongside bigger players makes the information more democratic and the prices sharper. Its not gambling, its about research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities.
Im also concerned about consumer protection, but I think the answer lies in strong regulation, not bans or heavy restrictions. Ive noticed that the CFTC already has solid tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Those same tools can work here. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets wont stop trading, itll just push people like me to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight at all. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. Instead, keeping these markets under CFTC supervision ensures transparency and safety.
On a related note, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or shut down prediction markets, we risk ceding ground to other countries that are more open to new ideas. Lets keep this industry here, under proper rules. I also think informed trading, even by those with strong insights, helps price discovery. That benefits all participants by making the markets predictions more reliable. Addressing specific questions from your ANPR, like those in Topic Area B (Questions 7-14) on public interest and price discovery, Id argue that the benefits of better information outweigh the risks, especially with existing safeguards against abuse. Similarly, on Topic Area E (Questions 29-32) about inside information, I believe the focus should be on enforcing current laws, not restricting entire markets.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Keep them legal, safe, and accessible under your oversight so traders like me can continue to participate and contribute to better forecasting for everyone.
Sincerely,
Zachary Long
