Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Josh Acebo, and I'm a student from New Jersey. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who's used prediction markets a few times, I wanted to share my thoughts on why I support well-regulated platforms for event contracts and why I believe the CFTC should encourage their growth under fair rules.
I've always been fascinated by how prediction markets work. They're not just a way to place bets; they pull together information from lots of people to create forecasts that often beat out polls or expert opinions. I've seen this firsthand when I used a platform to follow election outcomes. The market's predictions were closer to the actual results than most of the news pundits I was hearing. That kind of accuracy isn't just cool, it's useful for everyone, whether you're trading or not. It helps people like me, just a regular student, make sense of complex events by seeing what the crowd thinks is most likely to happen.
What matters most to me is having the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are a safe space to engage with these tools. I've read about unregulated offshore sites, and they seem risky, with no protections if something goes wrong. If the CFTC clamps down too hard or bans certain types of contracts, people aren't going to stop trading; they'll just move to those shadier platforms where there's no accountability. I think regulation should keep us in a safe, transparent system, not push activity into the shadows. This ties into Question 7 from your ANPR, about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I believe supporting regulated markets achieves both goals.
I'm not saying there aren't concerns. I get that some worry about manipulation or insider trading. But aren't those already illegal? The CFTC has tools to catch bad actors in other markets, so why not use those same tools here instead of broad restrictions? Banning or over-regulating prediction markets would cut off regular people like me from a unique way to engage with the world. It would be a shame to lose that.
I urge the CFTC to craft rules that support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Encourage innovation, protect participants, and keep activity on regulated platforms where it can be monitored. Please don't let heavy-handed restrictions or categorical bans limit access for everyday folks who find value in these markets.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Josh Acebo
