Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Dennis Normile, and I'm a small business owner from Dayton Ohio. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi & PredictIt, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they serve a valuable purpose for society and for people like me who want to contribute to better information in our democracy.
I see prediction markets as a unique tool for cutting through the noise of partisan pundits and manipulated polls. I trade on election outcomes and public events, and by doing so, I help create more accurate forecasts than what we often get from biased sources. This isnt just a hobby. The income I make from trading gets reinvested into the real economy, supporting my business and local jobs. More importantly, prediction markets give me a financial stake in calling out propaganda and misleading information thats pushed to sway elections. Having skin in the game motivates me to dig deeper, research facts, and counter deceptive narratives. I think thats crucial for the health of our democracy.
I also want to push back on any idea that event contracts are gambling. Theyre not. Trading on these markets takes skill, research, and judgment about real-world events, just like investing in stocks or commodities. They serve legitimate economic purposes, like price discovery and forecasting. Academic research backs this up, showing that prediction markets often outperform traditional polling methods. I believe informed trading, even by those with strong knowledge, improves price accuracy and benefits everyone, not just traders. Addressing Questions 29-32 in your ANPR, Id argue that insider trading risks can be managed with existing laws and CFTC oversight, rather than broad restrictions that hurt legitimate participants.
On the topic of public interest, as raised in Questions 7-14, I think the U.S. should lead in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or ban these markets, we risk pushing activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no consumer protection. Regulated markets like Kalshi & PredictIt are safer, transparent, and accountable. Id rather see the CFTC focus on proportionate rules that address specific risks than cede this space to other countries.
I urge you to support regulated prediction markets with clear, fair guidelines that encourage participation and protect users.
Thank you for considering my views.
Sincerely,
Dennis Normile
