Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Francisco Delgadillo Luna, and I'm writing to you as an everyday citizen from California regarding the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide real value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I want to share my perspective on why the CFTC should regulate them proportionately instead of imposing broad restrictions.
I first got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about things that affect my life, like election outcomes and economic events. I've noticed that the forecasts on these platforms are often more accurate than what I hear from polls or pundits on TV. That accuracy helps me make better decisions, whether it's planning my budget around potential policy changes or just understanding what's likely to happen in the world. I think this kind of price discovery benefits everyone, not just traders. It gives the public, the media, and even policymakers a clearer picture of what might come next.
As someone who trades on a regulated platform like Kalshi, I also feel much safer knowing there's oversight. If the CFTC were to over-restrict or ban these markets, I worry that activity would just move to unregulated offshore platforms where there are no protections. I'd much rather see the US lead in financial innovation and set the standard for how these markets should work, rather than cede that ground to other countries. We have the chance to be at the forefront of something important, and I hope we take it.
I'm aware of concerns like manipulation or insider trading, but I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to address those issues. You don't need to ban entire categories of contracts to stop bad actors; targeted rules can handle specific risks. Plus, I've read about academic research showing that informed trading actually improves price discovery, which helps everyone in the market. I think that's a net positive. In particular, I'm drawn to your questions 7 through 14 on public interest and 29 through 32 on inside information. I urge you to consider how regulated markets can balance innovation with consumer protection and how informed traders can contribute to better pricing, not detract from it.
I also use prediction markets to hedge personal financial risks tied to public events, like policy changes that could impact my costs. This isn't gambling to me; it's a practical tool, just like any other investment. I ask that the CFTC support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to thrive while addressing specific concerns with focused rules, rather than broad bans.
Thank you for considering my input. I hope you'll craft rules that keep these markets accessible and safe for everyday people like me.
Sincerely,
Francisco Delgadillo Luna
