Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Matt Wepel, and I'm a student from Oklahoma writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm fairly new to the concept of prediction markets, but I've taken an interest in them through my academic studies, and I strongly support their development under fair, well-thought-out regulation.
As a student, I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like these. Prediction markets aren't just a niche financial tool; theyre a way for everyday people like me to engage with real-world events and put our knowledge to use. Ive read about how these markets often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or expert opinions, and I think thats a public good worth protecting. Banning or over-restricting them wouldnt stop the activity. It would just push it to offshore platforms where theres no oversight, no consumer protection, and no benefit to the U.S. economy. Id rather see the CFTC create a framework that keeps these markets here, under proper rules.
I also believe the U.S. should be a leader in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard on prediction markets, we risk handing the future of this technology to other countries. As someone studying in an academic environment, I see how much potential there is in harnessing data and transparency through these platforms. The information they generate could be invaluable for research, whether its analyzing political trends or economic indicators. Im particularly interested in how informed trading improves price discovery, as discussed in questions 29 to 32 of the ANPR. When people with real knowledge participate, the market prices reflect better insights, and that benefits everyone, not just traders. Its not about insiders cheating; its about aggregating what people know into something useful.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or misuse, and those shouldnt be ignored. But the CFTC already has tools to address fraud and insider trading in other markets. I think those can be adapted here without shutting down an entire industry. In response to questions 7 to 14 on public interest, Id argue that innovation and access outweigh the risks if regulation is done right. Lets not punish the many for the actions of a few.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Create clear rules that protect participants and encourage transparency, but dont ban or over-restrict these valuable tools. I believe they have a place in our economy and in academic study, and Id like to see them grow responsibly.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Matt Wepel
