Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brady Trenchard, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Colorado. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive while protecting consumers.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted better information about elections and other public events. I've noticed that the forecasts on these platforms are often more accurate than what I see from polls or pundits on TV. That kind of insight isn't just useful for traders like me; it's valuable for anyone trying to make sense of the world, whether it's a journalist, a policymaker, or just a regular person. Beyond that, I've used these markets to hedge personal risks. For instance, Ive placed trades on economic indicators that could affect my budget, like inflation data impacting my rent or groceries. This isn't gambling to me. It takes research and real-world judgment, just like any other investment.
I'm also a big believer in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are a safe space for people like me to trade. If you ban or over-restrict these markets, I worry that activity will just move to unregulated offshore sites where there's no consumer protection at all. The US should be leading the way in financial innovation, not pushing it overseas. Plus, academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets improve information transparency and price discovery. When informed traders participate, the prices get sharper, and that benefits everyone.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other markets. There's no need to ban prediction markets to stop a few bad actors. That would punish regular folks like me who are using these tools responsibly. I'd urge you to look at specific questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection, and Question 29 on whether informed trading helps price discovery. My view is clear: regulation should focus on targeted safeguards, not broad restrictions.
I hope the CFTC will support proportionate rules that let prediction markets grow while keeping them safe and fair. Please don't ban or over-restrict them. I want to keep participating in a regulated, transparent system right here in the US.
Sincerely,
Brady Trenchard
