Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Isaiah Elvir, and I'm just a regular young guy from Texas trying to figure out my way in life. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they can be a valuable tool if regulated the right way. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets rather than imposing heavy restrictions or bans.
As someone still getting a handle on my finances, I see real value in prediction markets for hedging personal risks. Whether it's an election outcome that could affect my taxes or a policy change that might impact my job prospects, having a way to offset uncertainty feels empowering. It's not gambling to me. It's about making informed decisions based on research, just like investing in stocks. Beyond my own needs, I think these markets provide unique information. The prices often predict outcomes better than polls or pundits, and that benefits everyone, not just traders.
I also worry about consumer protection. I've noticed that regulated platforms like Kalshi are much safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people like me might turn to less secure options with no oversight. That's a bigger risk. Plus, I believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead while we hold back. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle issues like manipulation and insider trading. Use those instead of broad bans. Targeted rules make more sense than shutting down entire categories of contracts.
On a related note, I think informed trading actually helps. When people with knowledge participate, it makes the market prices more accurate, and that helps everyone understand the world better. This ties into some of the questions in your notice, like Question 29 about whether informed traders aid price discovery. I believe they do. Also, regarding Question 7 on balancing innovation and protection, I think proportionate regulation gets that balance right. One small gripe I have with Kalshi is the slow updates. Comments and data take forever to refresh. Faster live updates would make the platform even more useful.
I'm not an expert, but I've read that academic research supports prediction markets for better forecasting and transparency. Let's lean on that data. I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to grow while addressing specific risks with focused solutions. Please don't let heavy-handed restrictions push activity offshore or stifle innovation.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Isaiah Elvir
