Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jonathon Polhill, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Georgia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to gather public input before drafting rules, and I want to explain why I think these markets are valuable and why regulation should focus on protecting access, not restricting it.
Ive found prediction markets to be a great system, even if theyre not perfect yet. One thing I really like is the ability to make trades and cash out early without getting hit with a huge loss, unlike sports gambling books that offer cashout options at a fraction of what the true odds should be. On prediction markets, the payout feels fairer, based on what the public actually believes the chances of an outcome are. Its not just about making a quick buck; its about having a system that reflects real information and lets regular people like me participate in a meaningful way.
What I care about most is the freedom to take part in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people arent going to stop trading. Theyll just move to sketchy offshore platforms with no protections. Thats worse for everyone. Plus, I think the U.S. should be leading the way in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard, were just handing that leadership to other countries.
I get that there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation, and those are valid. But I dont think the answer is shutting down markets. Maybe theres a simple fix: when someone signs up for a platform, have them provide their Social Security number and answer a few questions about their job or any special info they might have access to. If theyve got insider knowledge on a specific topic, block them from trading those contracts. Or, honestly, platforms like Kalshi could even pay those folks to help set fair lines for trades instead. Theres got to be a way to regulate this fairly without punishing everyone else. Im particularly interested in your questions 29 through 32 on inside information, and I think the focus should be on targeted restrictions, not broad bans.
Im asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont over-restrict or ban them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible for regular folks like me, while using the tools you already have to tackle bad actors. Thanks for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jonathon Polhill
