Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Chris Weber, and I'm a military veteran and sports bettor from North Carolina. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe these markets serve a real purpose that goes far beyond what some might call gambling.
As someone who's spent years in the military, I know a thing or two about assessing risks and making informed decisions under pressure. Trading on prediction markets isn't just a game to me; it's a way to put my judgment and research to use. Whether I'm looking at political events, economic indicators, or even weather outcomes that could affect my plans, I'm not just tossing a coin. I'm digging into data, reading up on current events, and making calculated calls. That's not gambling. That's a skill, much like what I use when I place sports bets, where I focus on stats and team performance. In fact, when I bet on sports, I care about the potential win, not the total payout including my initial wager. Prediction markets work the same way for me; it's about the value of the outcome, not some random thrill.
I worry that labeling event contracts as "gaming" misses the point. These contracts have legitimate economic uses. For example, Ive used them to hedge against uncertainties that hit close to home, like election results that could change policies affecting veterans' benefits or local taxes here in North Carolina. This isn't a casino. It's a tool that helps regular folks like me manage real-world risks and gain insights you can't find in polls or news headlines.
I'm particularly drawn to questions 15 through 22 in your ANPR about defining gaming versus legitimate markets. I urge you to recognize that event contracts aren't about luck; theyre about information and judgment. Classifying them as gaming would be like calling stock trading a lottery just because there's risk involved. Instead, focus on rules that tackle specific issues like manipulation or insider trading, which I know the CFTC already has the power to address.
Prediction markets also level the playing field. They let everyday people like me have a stake in understanding and predicting events that shape our lives. Banning or over-restricting them would just push this activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which is worse for everyone.
I ask that the CFTC support well-regulated prediction markets with clear, fair rules that address real risks without shutting down the whole system. These markets are valuable, and with the right oversight, they can benefit society while protecting consumers like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Chris Weber
