Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mary Parker, and I'm a trader and investor based in New York. I've been active in various financial markets for years, and I've used prediction markets a few times to gauge outcomes on political and economic events. I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that allow them to thrive under proper oversight.
As someone who works in trading, I see firsthand how prediction markets offer information you can't get elsewhere. I've noticed their forecasts often beat out polls or pundits when it comes to accuracy. Whether it's an election result or a policy change, these markets aggregate what people really think, based on where they're willing to put their money. That kind of price discovery isn't just useful for traders like me; it helps the public and even policymakers make better decisions. I think the CFTC should recognize this benefit when considering regulations, especially in response to Questions 7 and 8 about public interest and price discovery.
I'm also a firm believer in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore sites. If you ban or over-restrict prediction markets, you're not stopping the activity; you're just pushing it to places with no rules or consumer protections. I've seen how other financial innovations get stifled when the US doesn't lead, and I don't want to see us cede ground to other countries on something this promising. This ties directly to Questions 33 and 34 about classification and costs. Let's keep these markets here, under your watch, and not drive them away.
I also want to push back on any idea that event contracts are just gaming. They serve real economic purposes, like hedging against uncertainty or discovering what the crowd knows. Trading on these platforms takes research and judgment, not luck. Classifying them as gambling would be a mistake. And on concerns about manipulation or insider trading, I believe the CFTC already has strong tools to handle bad actors. You don't need to ban entire markets to stop a few cheaters; just enforce the rules you've got, as discussed in Questions 29 and 30 about inside information.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets grow while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Don't let over-restriction kill a valuable tool or push it offshore. Keep the US at the forefront of financial innovation.
Sincerely,
Mary Parker
