Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ethan Lin, and I'm a student from Indiana. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets and believe the CFTC should focus on proportionate rules rather than bans or overly strict limits.
I've been using prediction markets for a while now, and they've been incredibly valuable to me. As a student, I don't have a ton of money to throw around, but trading on these platforms lets me hedge personal financial risks that hit close to home. For example, I've placed trades on economic indicators like inflation rates because they directly affect my student loans and living costs. It's not gambling to me; it's a practical way to manage uncertainty in my life. Plus, Ive found that participating in these markets forces me to research and understand real-world events more deeply, which ties into my academic work.
I also believe that allowing regular people like me to participate in legal, regulated markets is important. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, provide a safe space to trade event contracts. They have clear rules, transparency, and protections that you just don't get with unregulated offshore platforms. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, I worry that activity will just move to those shady, offshore sites where theres no accountability. Id much rather trade on a platform I know is watched by regulators than take my chances somewhere else.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think regulated prediction markets strike that balance by giving people access to unique tools for hedging and information while still having safeguards against manipulation. On Question 29, regarding insider trading, I agree its a concern, but the answer isnt to shut down markets. The CFTC already has laws and tools to go after bad actors, and those should be enforced instead of punishing everyone.
I hope the CFTC will support the growth of prediction markets with rules that are fair and targeted. Dont push people like me out of safe, regulated spaces by over-restricting these platforms. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Ethan Lin
