Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Curtis Patrick, and I'm an everyday citizen from Massachusetts writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I follow prediction markets closely, even though I don't trade on them myself, because I believe they provide unique information and value to society. I'm concerned about over-restrictive regulations that could limit access to these markets, and I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets without banning or unfairly categorizing them.
I think prediction markets are a powerful tool for understanding the world. They often predict outcomes, like elections or economic shifts, more accurately than polls or experts. That kind of information shouldn't be locked away for just big institutions. Regular people like me should have the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets if we choose to. It's about fairness and access. If only the big players get to use these tools, the benefits stay with them, not the public.
I also strongly believe event contracts aren't gambling. They serve real economic purposes, like helping people hedge against uncertainty or make informed decisions. For example, a small business owner might use a market on election outcomes to plan for tax or policy changes. That's not a game; it's a practical tool. Calling these contracts "gaming" feels like a misstep to me. It would be like labeling stock investments as gambling just because there's risk involved. I think the CFTC should focus on their real utility, as asked in Questions 15 and 16 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
On the concern of manipulation or insider trading, I get that it's a risk. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues. You've got the authority to go after bad actors in any regulated market, and those powers apply to prediction markets too. Banning or over-restricting these markets to stop a few cheaters punishes everyone else. It's not fair to shut down something valuable because of potential misuse. I'd encourage the CFTC to use existing safeguards and adapt them, as discussed in Questions 1 and 29 regarding manipulation prevention and insider information.
I'm just a regular person who sees the value in these markets. They give us a way to understand complex events and make better choices. I hope the CFTC will regulate prediction markets in a balanced way, addressing specific risks without broad prohibitions or misclassifications. Please support proportionate regulation that keeps these markets accessible to everyday citizens like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Curtis Patrick
