Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Daniel Cronin, and I'm a student from Connecticut studying engineering, math, and physics. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope my perspective as someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi can add to this discussion.
I love data analysis. It's a big part of my studies, and I've found a real outlet for that passion in trading on prediction markets. I've made a good amount of money on Kalshi by digging into data and making informed bets on real-world events. It's not just profitable, it's fun, and it feels like a practical way to apply what I'm learning. Beyond my personal experience, I see real value in these markets for society. They've consistently produced more accurate forecasts than polls or pundits. That kind of insight isn't just helpful for traders like me, it's useful for everyone, from businesses to policymakers.
What worries me is the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets. I trade on Kalshi because it's regulated and safe. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people like me will get pushed to unregulated offshore platforms where there are no protections. That seems like the opposite of what regulation should do. Plus, prediction markets aren't just speculation. They help individuals and businesses hedge real risks, like economic or political changes that could affect livelihoods. Classifying event contracts as gaming doesn't make sense to me. This isn't a slot machine. It takes research and judgment, just like any other investment.
I also believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. We shouldn't let other countries take the lead while we hesitate. The CFTC already has strong tools to prevent manipulation and insider trading in other markets. Those same tools can work here without resorting to broad bans. I'm particularly drawn to Questions 7 and 15 in the ANPR, about balancing innovation with consumer protection and defining what counts as gaming. I think the answer lies in proportionate, targeted rules that address specific risks without shutting down entire markets.
I urge you to support regulated prediction markets with fair, focused regulations. Don't let over-restriction push activity offshore or punish those of us who value these platforms for their accuracy and utility. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Daniel Cronin
