Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Irvin Castro, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Connecticut. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their development under fair and sensible regulation by the CFTC. I believe these markets can be valuable tools for regular people like me, and I want to see them grow in a safe, transparent way.
I first learned about prediction markets through news articles about platforms like Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC. What struck me is how these markets can give people a way to weigh in on real-world events, whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator, with real financial stakes. That feels empowering to someone like me who often feels like big decisions are out of our hands. But what worries me is the idea of these markets going unregulated or being pushed offshore. I've read about offshore platforms that operate with no oversight, and that seems like a recipe for fraud or manipulation. I'd much rather see the CFTC regulate prediction markets here in the US, where there are rules to protect consumers like me from scams or unfair practices.
I also think the United States should be a leader in this kind of financial innovation. If we over-restrict or ban prediction markets, we're just handing the advantage to other countries that will develop these tools instead. Why should we let others take the lead when we have the chance to set the standard for safe, innovative markets? I believe the CFTC can strike a balance, protecting consumers while allowing growth. This ties directly to some of the questions in your ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection. My view is clear: regulation is the way to protect us, not prohibition. And in response to Question 14, comparing these markets to other tools, I think regulated prediction markets are a unique way to gather information and manage risk, something we shouldn't lose to offshore alternatives.
I've got no illusions that there are risks here. I know there could be issues like manipulation or insider trading, but I trust the CFTC already has tools to handle those problems in other markets. Use those same tools here. Don't shut down something promising just because a few bad actors might try to game the system. I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, allowing platforms like Kalshi to operate under clear rules while keeping consumers safe from the dangers of unregulated offshore options.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Irvin Castro
