Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Guy Cook, and I'm a small business owner from Maryland. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their existence under fair and proportionate regulation. I believe they offer unique value to people like me, and I want to urge the CFTC to regulate them in a way that allows them to thrive without over-restricting access.
As a business owner, I'm always looking for better information to make decisions. Prediction markets stand out because they produce forecasts that are often more accurate than polls or pundits. I've seen how the collective wisdom of many people trading on these platforms can cut through the noise of opinion pieces or biased surveys. This isn't just helpful for traders; it's valuable for anyone trying to understand what's likely to happen, whether it's an election outcome or an economic shift that could affect my business. I also appreciate the chance to see shared opinions and predictions from others. And, like most folks, I think it's a neat opportunity to register my own view and maybe make a dollar or two if I'm right.
I want to stress that event contracts are not gambling in my view. They serve real economic purposes, like helping people hedge risks or gain insight into future events that impact their lives. Calling this "gaming" feels like a misstep; it's more akin to investing, where you research and make informed choices. I'm particularly drawn to how these markets democratize access to information. If only big players can participate, the insights stay with them. Letting regular people like me take part makes the system fairer and the predictions sharper.
That said, I understand concerns about potential abuses, like insider trading. I firmly believe there should be no room for that, especially when it comes to federal officials, members of Congress, or Senators using nonpublic information. But the answer isn't to ban or overly restrict prediction markets. Those laws already exist to stop insider trading, and the CFTC has tools to prevent market manipulation. Use those tools, don't punish everyone else by shutting down a useful system. I think this ties into Questions 29 and 30 from your ANPR, about insider information and price discovery. Informed trading can help make prices more accurate, but it has to be fair and legal.
I'm asking the CFTC to support prediction markets with balanced rules that address specific risks without broad bans. Let these markets grow as a tool for better forecasting and economic insight. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Guy Cook
