Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Justin Londer, and I'm just a regular working-class guy from Michigan. I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, specifically in Bitcoin prediction markets, and I want to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets that allow folks like me to participate in a fair and safe way.
Ive developed a conservative strategy that works for me. I only trade on Bitcoin price predictions when I see a 98% chance of winning, taking the "yes" side for short periods, usually 24 hours or less. I dont risk much, and Im not jumping in every day or hour. Maybe every few days when the timing feels right. Ive studied Bitcoins movements for a while, staying informed up to the minute, and my win rate on Kalshi over the past six weeks is close to 100%. If someone wants to take the other side with a 2% chance, thats their call. Were adults making informed decisions. Kalshi doesnt decide outcomes; it just gives us a platform to match our predictions. I cant get odds like this anywhere else. Casinos? No way. Sports betting? Too unpredictable with injuries. Lotto tickets? Thats just throwing money away. Prediction markets give regular people like me a fighting chance to make smart, calculated moves. This isnt gambling; its research and judgment, much like any other investment.
I believe prediction markets are valuable beyond my personal experience. They often forecast events like elections more accurately than polls or pundits, providing information that benefits everyone, not just traders. They also allow individuals and businesses to hedge real risks, whether its political outcomes or economic shifts. Plus, having regulated platforms like Kalshi is far safer than pushing activity to shady offshore sites where theres no oversight. I worry that over-restricting or banning these markets will just drive people like me to less secure options.
Addressing some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B (Questions 7-14) on public interest, I think the CFTC should prioritize innovation and access while protecting consumers through targeted rules, not broad bans. On Topic Area E (Questions 29-32) regarding inside information, I believe informed trading actually helps price discovery, and the CFTC already has tools to tackle manipulation or insider trading. Theres no need to punish everyone by shutting down these markets over the actions of a few bad actors. And on Topic Area C (Questions 15-22), I strongly feel event contracts arent gaming; they serve real economic purposes like hedging and information gathering.
Im not naive. I get that some regulation is necessary to prevent abuse. But please dont take away opportunities like my conservative 98% win-rate strategy that Ive worked hard to build. The U.S. should lead in financial innovation, not cede ground to other countries. I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets that protects consumers without stifling access for regular people like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Justin Londer
